Feasible supply of steel and cement within a carbon budget is likely to fall short of expected global demand
Watari, T., Cabrera Serrenho, A., Gast, L., Cullen, J., Allwood, J. Feasible supply of steel and cement within a carbon budget is likely to fall short of expected global demand. Nature Communications. Available here.
Nature Communications modelling of whether global steel and cement supply can expand at the rates required by standard development scenarios while remaining within a 1.5°C-compatible carbon budget. The paper finds that feasible low-carbon supply trajectories for both materials fall short of projected demand under conventional growth assumptions, creating a physical constraint that neither demand management nor technological optimism can fully close within the relevant timeframe. For CCS infrastructure planning, the implication is direct: the materials needed to build decarbonisation assets face the same supply pressure as everything else, and assuming unconstrained material availability in project cost modelling is a planning error that will surface as construction cost overruns.