Risks of financial derisking

Basel IV’s push to standardise risk via output floors (phasing to 72.5% of standardised RWAs) and recalibrated project finance weights (often 100–130% pre-operational) strips banks of internal-model benefits, raising regulatory capital needs and lending margins (estimates around +50 bps on WACC for infrastructure), which ironically disincentivises long-dated, cash-flow-stable projects like CCS hubs and port infrastructure despite their low economic risk profile. In parallel, the Netherlands’ Mining Act (Mijnbouwwet) transposes the EU CCS Directive but applies conservative onshore-mining standards (stricter scrutiny on subsidence, seismicity, groundwater) to offshore geological storage (inherently lower-risk in depleted North Sea fields) inflating compliance, insurance, and financial guarantee costs “by proxy” and making key projects (Porthos, Aramis; extensions of the Northern Lights terminal) more expensive to finance and permit; this dual derisking dynamic flows straight into higher hub tariffs, shipping rates, and land/port development hurdles, showing how safety-first rules can become a hidden decarbonisation tax unless smarter carve-outs (differentiated RW for green infra, offshore-specific tailoring) unlock the scale needed for EEA heavy-industry net-zero ambitions.